Israel\'s Unity Deal Unlikely to Shift Iran Strategy Significantly

Former Israeli opposition leader Shaul Mofaz's surprise entry into Israel's ruling coalition this week appears unlikely to trigger a chief shift in Israeli policy on Iran's nuclear program.

The leader of Israel's centrist Kadima party was sworn in as Israeli vice premier on Wednesday, an afternoon after agreeing to affix Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist coalition in a unity government.

Just before the swearing in, Israel's parliament, the Knesset, approved the unity deal between Mofaz's Kadima and Netanyahu's Likud party by a vote of 71 to 23.

Shared view on a Nuclear-armed Iran

Mofaz, a 63-year-old former Israeli military chief and defense minister, previously has joined Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders in warning that a nuclear-armed Iran can be a threat to Israel's existence.

Iranian leaders frequently have called for destruction of the Jewish state. But, Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful.

In a Jerusalem Post interview last month, Iranian-born Mofaz said that “allowing Iran to procure even a civilian nuclear capability would change the balance of power within the Middle East,” adding that “Israel cannot accept this.”

He also said that if Israel sees Iran “getting toward an army nuclear capability” and the u. s. failing to prevent such progress, he'll be “the first to support Israel taking action” against Iranian nuclear sites.

Netanyahu's government has long warned that military action is an choice to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Boosting Netanyahu's touch stance

London-based Middle East expert Yossi Mekelberg of Chatham House said Mofaz's decision to sign up for the sort of hawkish coalition indicates that the Kadima chief would approve any decision to strike Iran.

Mekelberg said Mofaz's security credentials also lend credibility to Netanyahu's tough Iran stance.

“Bringing Mofaz into the federal government [allows the prime minister to] say, ‘here is another military man, [who] knows what have to be done and knows what he's doing.”

In another boost to Netanyahu, his expanded 94-seat coalition within the 120-member Knesset gives him a large majority to support any possible confrontation with Iran.

But, Mofaz also told the Jerusalem Post that the Iranian “sword” is not really yet on Israel's “neck,” as he put it.

A more cautious approach on timing

Natan Sachs, an Israeli politics expert on the Brookings Institution in Washington,says that Mofaz was “more cautious” than Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak concerning the timing of action against Iran.

Netanyahu and Barak repeatedly have warned the international community that point is running out for negotiations and sanctions to pressure Iran to prevent enriching uranium, a key nuclear weapon ingredient.

Last month, when Israel's former internal security chief Yuval Diskin accused both men of exaggerating the perceived Iranian threat and the effectiveness of an army strike, Mofaz said he took those criticisms seriously.

Sachs said Mofaz, then opposition leader, made the comment partly to attain political points against the govt.  He said Mofaz also sent a message of skepticism concerning the urgency of military action.

Empasizing another threat

Another sign of Mofaz's caution on Iran is his recent contention that the Iranian nuclear program isn't very Israel's biggest threat.

In the Jerusalem Post interview, the Kadima leader said Israel faces a better danger of losing its Jewish majority if it has to take in millions of Palestinian Arabs who don't get a state in their own.  

Both Sachs and Chatham House expert Mekelberg said the hot Israeli vice premier's overall impact at the government's Iran strategy is difficult to find out by using his reputation for changing positions on major issues.

One example is Mofaz's agreement to enroll in a Netanyahu-led coalition two months after using his Facebook page to declare that he wouldn't join what he called a “bad and failed” government.

Uncertainty about key decision-making

An additional uncertainty in Mofaz's influence over Iran policy is his level of involvement within the decision-making process.

Under the Likud-Kadima agreement, Mofaz earns a position in a casual Israeli security cabinet that in the past included eight senior members.

But Sachs said the Iran nuclear issue is so sensitive that just two members had been making a number of the decisions: the prime minister and defense minister.

“It is simply too early to inform whether Mofaz will join the innermost circle of consultation between Mr. Netanyahu and Barak,” Sachs said. “It a great deal depends upon how Mr. Netanyahu views the partnership with Mofaz and the way close he brings him into the discussions.”

From WhatNewsToday.net

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